Expert warns of the risk of earthquakes and tsunamis in the South China Sea

Scientists in mainland China, Taiwan (China) and the Philippines have warned of the risk of a major tsunami in the South China Sea.

Dr. Tien Tan, an ocean geologist from the Chinese Institute of Marine Ecology Research Institute, in an interview in June, said he used a new mathematical model. to analyze historical seismic data collected by Chinese research vessels in the waters along Manila Trench (also known as Manila Submergence ).

Because the new model tool can measure the geological structures of the Manila Trench with high resolution, Dr. Tien Tan discovered the actual length of the fault zone in the Manila Trench, where possible. Cause a tsunami, notably longer than the previously reported length. This means that the possibility of the Manila Trench generating a major earthquake and tsunami may have been underestimated.

Dr. Tien Tan emphasized that ' Manila trench has been stretched for a long time. A huge amount of energy is being compressed inside it. If an earthquake happens, it could be a huge earthquake. "

Photo: AFP

However, the exact size of this fault section as well as the scale and timing of tsunami occurrence must still be calculated.

The Manila trench is about 350 km long, running south of Taiwan's island south to the west coast of Luzon Island, the largest island in the Philippines. The depth of the Manila Trench is about 5.4 km, which is about 3.5 times the average depth of the South China Sea. That's where the giant Eurasian continent collided and sank under the ancient Philippine continental plate.

Meanwhile, Associate Professor-Dr. Ngo To Nhiem of the Hydrological Research Institute of the Central University of Taiwan, said that Taiwan is particularly vulnerable, not only because the island is near the top North of the Manila Trench, but also because of a large nuclear power plant on the southern coast of Taiwan.

In April last year, in an exchange with Philippine news agency GMA News, Dr. Renato Solidum, Director of the Philippine Institute of Volcanic and Seismic Studies, said an earthquake of magnitude 8.2 It will happen in the Manila Trench that will cause tsunami waves of 10m high, pouring into the Philippine coasts within 5-10 minutes and within an hour the Manila capital will be submerged in the sea.

Meanwhile, Professor Mao Hien Trung, a tsunami risk researcher from Tsinghua University (China), said that the simulation showed that the Manila Trench earthquakes had an intensity of 8 on the Richter scale. or higher could cause catastrophes to coastal areas of Southern China, with waves up to 5 meters.

According to the expert, hundreds of thousands of people could be killed. Professor Mao Hien Trung also urged regional governments to put aside political disputes and work together to avoid the aforementioned potential disaster.