Use the math model to find the team that won the 2010 World Cup

Swiss banking experts use mathematical models to predict the champion of the 2010 World Cup and they say the ability to become the king of Brazil is the biggest.

Telegraph said that some experts of the asset management department of UBS in Switzerland used econometric tools and many quantitative models to create mathematical models predicting the trophy team. . Input data are past competition results and Elo indicators of each team.

Elo is calculated based on the latest wins and losses and the conditions in which matches occur. If you beat many "big men" like Brazil or Spain, the Elo of certain teams will increase faster than winning against small teams like Malta or Andorra.

Italy midfielder Fabio Cannavaro snatched the ball with Brazilian midfielder Kaka in the Confederations Cup match at Loftus Versfeld Stadium in South Africa on June 21, 2009.Photo: zimbio.com.

The model shows that Brazil's ability to become champion is 22%. That ratio may not be impressive, but it is larger than the number for the remaining teams. Brazil is the team that has won the world championship five times. Spain - reigning European champion - only 4% chance of winning the trophy. In the last three world football championships, Spain and England are rated as two of the strongest teams, but they only reached the quarterfinals.

The group of UBS bankers said the South African host nation's ability to overcome the group stage in the 2010 World Cup was 78%.

UBS was praised by the media in 2006, when they expected Italy to win the World Cup that year. At that time they also correctly guessed 13/16 teams who passed the group stage, 6/8 teams went to the quarterfinals, 2/4 teams entered the semi-finals.

However, in the 2008 European Championship, the team that UBS predicted the championship did not pass the group stage.

"It shows that people should be humble about the predictability of mathematical models," commented the UBS expert team.